While a second round of negotiations between the opposition and the ruling party is not yet in the air, the extra-parliamentary opposition has taken time-out for regrouping, and certain new coalitions look likely to form. Whether the opposition will come with an alternative, positive action plan or vision after regrouping remains to be seen.
The extra-parliamentary opposition regrouping will be possibly finalized by the coming August, the latest.
The Georgian political situation has remained largely the same for the last 48 days. The ruling UNM headed by president Saakashvili, the cooperative parliamentary opposition and the extra-parliamentary opposition have yet to reach any tangible agreement. There is still a ray of hope that if the ruling party, parliamentary opposition and certain extra-parliamentary parties launch successful dialogue over constitutional and other legislative changes, the crisis can resolved - to the benefit of the Georgian political system if new checks and balances are approved.
The Georgian public as well as the international community has been looking forward to a positive breakthrough in the battle between Georgia's political gladiators for over a month now. A breakthrough seemed to come on May 11 when a dialogue was at last established between the ruling party and it's extra-parliamentary opposition.
Inside Georgia the political stand-off is viewed very much as a battle of nerves, a situation where neither side is willing to back down and preferring to wait instead for the other side to weaken.
Dialogue between Georgia's ruling and opposition parties has finally begun. However, at this initial stage, the common ground and cooperative vision needed to lead the country away from crisis has yet to be found.
The most recent developments in Georgia are perfect proof that the unsettled rhetorical and political stalemate in the country is doomed to escalate into violence or instability. So, is not now time that both sides -government and opposition, take responsibility for the political processes in Georgia and act to diffuse the looming crisis?
Amid ongoing political deadlock in Georgia, a way to avoid political crisis remains to be found. The extra-parliamentary opposition suspects the pro-government United National Movement' (UNM) proposed dialogue on that nature of the institutional, systemic and political changes the country needs. The UNM meanwhile rejects the opposition's demand for a presidential resignation.
Demand of those opposition parties, which are behind the ongoing protest rallies, to hold talks on terms of President Saakashvili's resignation is "an ultimatum" and can not serve as a basis for a dialogue, Davit Bakradze, the parliamentary chairman, said on April 21. Dialogue does not mean communications only with a radical wing of opposition, Mr. Bakradze further declared today, prior to the beginning of a meeting with representatives of intelligentsia in hotel "Sheraton Metekhi Palace". 'The Government continues meetings with the representatives of society. The key for the authorities is to know opinion of society on processes ongoing in the country, and also steps which the government should undertake"
Systemic change and improved system of checks and balances is a guarantee that the newcoming decision-makers are not tempted to monopolize power in their hands. The balanced political system will prevent public discontent with the government concentration of power and will consequently avoid protest rallies requesting resignations, dissolutions and early elections. It is highly advisable that the major political players in the country agree on the democratic rules of the game and initiate dialugue on the specific systemic changes in Georgia. The pending question is this: can space for dialogue between the ruling and opposition parties be achieved?
Since the 'Rose Revolution' in 2003 Georgia has been through a period of democratic reform and an on-going experience of increasing political polarization and instability.
NIMD has been actively working with the mayor political parties in Georgia since 2004.
At the start of what seems to be yet another wave of street protests, NIMD's Nina Kobakhidze blogs on the events from Tbilisi.
