Street protests in Georgia
They have pledged to continue staging street protests until he quits.
The politically polarized state is facing up to the ever pending question: revolution or evolution to transform the country. Even though the majority of Georgians opt for evolutionary changes, tensions are exacerbated by competing political groups: the ruling power UNM, parliamentary opposition parties and (mostly) extra-parliamentary parties.
A Closer Look
Looking more closely at the key political players and their priorities during these protests, the situation looks as follows: The UNM prioritizes a) tackling the population's dissatisfaction with the economic crisis, b) warning the population as well as the extra-parliamentary opposition of the possible negative consequences of the instability in the country and c) attempting to initiate talks with the opposition. The ruling party supports dialogue on issues such as the election code, constitutional amendments (i.e. the decrease of presidential powers at the expense of an increase of parliamentary rule), security, economic issues and social issues.
The parliamentary majority dialogue initiative is positively met by the parliamentary opposition groups (Christian Democratic Movement - a staunch supporter of a parliamentary system - and the National Democratic Party). Involvement of the extra-parliamentary opposition in the talks has so far proven unsuccessful.
The former United National Council parties (Conservatives, People's Party, Georgia's Way, Movement for United Georgia, the former opposition presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze, but also the parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze's Democratic Movement-United Georgia) are the organizers of the April 9 protest rally.
Much of the extra-parliamentary opposition group considers the resources for dialogue exhausted. They hope to continue the peaceful protests until the president resigns, which they consider inevitable. The parties aim at eventually mobilizing large masses of around 100 000. The extra-parliamentary opposition aired several statements in which they promised a paralysis of government institutions, supermarkets and railways due to the rallies. Their question as to what will happen if president Saakashvili does not resign is left unanswered by these parties.
The opposition Alliance for Georgia, consisting of the Republicans, New Rights and the Alasania team are considered more pro-Western, as they support Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspiration in their public statements. The Alliance initiated a plebiscite collecting the signatures for early presidential elections during their extensive travels through the Georgian regions. Their consultations with the extra-parliamentary political parties were somewhat fruitful and led the Alliance to join the rallies. The Alliance for Georgia, however, is not among the rally organizers and does not take responsibility for the rallies. It has joined the initiator parties only for their demands for presidential resignation and early presidential elections.
The Labor Party (LP) has joined the April 9 rallies although it is not among the organizers of the rally. LP has expressed its indignation at the active participation of former Saakashvili allies in the planned April protests. Labor Party representatives openly underline their opposition to Georgia's NATO aspiration.
The newly established alliance for "Freedom", consisting of the Freedom Party, the Party of Future, the Women's Party and the Traditionalists, seems to be supporting a gradual change of the Saakashvili rule. They also participate in the protests. The alliance representatives aired two initiatives: a) creation of a shadow cabinet, or transitional government; b) transforming Georgia into a parliamentary Republic.
Much of the protests centers on two fundamental questions: how is Georgia avoiding the political and economic crisis? And when will be the next elections: presidential elections in 2009 or in 2013, or parliamentary and local elections somewhere in between, in 2010?
In answering these questions all the involved parties should appear around the negotiation table and design a strategy for 2009-2010. The Georgian Orthodox Church is the most trusted institution and seems capable of bringing the political landscape to the dialogue mode. International organizations are also crucial in contributing to the stability in the country. It is crucial at this stage to find a space of dialogue between the antagonized political groups. The ruling party proposes talks on three topical issues: democratic reforms, the economic crisis, and security. However, the extra-parliamentary opposition group agrees to only initiate dialogue around the resignation of president Saakashvili and early presidential elections. The language of ultimatum is not contributing to avoiding the deadlock. Unless the political parties somewhat modify their stands, pro-active negotiations seem unlikely.
At the start of the protests the outcome remains unclear.
The following scenarios are in the air:
1) the dialogue between the ruling and opposition parties is successfully launched around the issue of shifting the Georgian constitution towards a parliamentary republic with a figurehead president. This would require preparations for local and early parliamentary elections
2) peaceful rallies will cease after the opposition supporters get exhausted with week-long protests and no subsequent changes in the current distribution of power;
3) opposition rallies will be dispersed as the protesters in a way obstruct the rhythm of life in the city/country;
4) President Saakashvili resigns and new presidential elections are appointed;
5) the rallies result in clashes between the ruling and opposition groups (least likely).
For the most part, the outcome depend on the nature and numbers of the anti-government protests that will continue this week.
